In the world of college basketball, it's simply never too early to start breaking down March Madness. While Selection Sunday isn't until March 17, we simply can't leave you hanging until then. So for the next three weeks leading up to the start of our Bubble Watch on March 10, we'll keep refocusing the NCAA Tournament picture to give you an idea of who's moving in, out and who needs to start sweating:
No. 1 SEEDS ... as of today
1. Midwest: Indiana*
2. East: Duke
3. South: Miami
4. West: Florida
*- No. 1 overall seed
On Deck (In order): Michigan, Michigan State, Syracuse, Gonzaga, Arizona
Reasoning: More last-minute moves based on what happened on Tuesday night. ... With Michigan getting pounded on the road at Michigan State and having lost two of the last three, the Wolverines fell from our last No. 1 seed. ... Replacing Michigan is Florida, has won 12 of its last 13 and has the No. 4 RPI in the country. ... Also debuting on the 1-line? Miami, which is the last undefeated team in conference play among the six BCS conferences. ... Michigan State is lurking big-time as a team that can not only jump up to a No. 1 seed, but perhaps the No. 1 overall seed. After beating Michigan, the Spartans have six games left against the meat of the Big Ten: Indiana, at Ohio State, at Michigan and Wisconsin. ... Another No. 1-seed lurker? Syracuse. UConn, Georgetown twice, Marquette and Louisville are left for the Orange to boost the resume.
WHO'S MOVING IN
Illinois
Added two more wins over ranked teams. Barring a collapse, Illini are in now.
Saint Mary's
In for now, but beating rival Gonzaga Thursday would solidify a weak profile.
Temple
Owls are hanging on barely. But get five of their final eight games at home.
WHO'S MOVING OUT
St. John's
Four more chances to get a third (possibly fourth) signature win for the resume.
Stanford
Going to have to beat UCLA on Saturday to keep the hopes afloat.
Maryland
Get Duke on Saturday, but looking so much like an NIT team right now.
FIVE TEAMS WHO NEED A GOOD WEEK
1. Ole Miss (18-5, 7-3 SEC)
On The Docket: at Texas A&M (Tonight), vs. Georgia (Sat.)
The Rebels are -- now -- firmly entrenched in the field of 68. But it's keeping it that way which has to start this week. After starting SEC play 6-0, Ole Miss is just 1-3 since. Now, the losses are to Kentucky, Florida and Missouri (the latter two on the road), so it's not all that damaging. But here's the thing: It's in their best interests to keep the seed as high as possible. Sliding back to the 10-, 11-, 12-seed range is not where you want to be come March 17.
2. Wisconsin (17-7, 8-3 Big Ten)
On The Docket: at Minnesota (Thurs.), vs. Ohio State (Sun.)
Suddenly, February is shaping up to be the Badgers' month. They've started out 3-0 with wins at Illinois and over Michigan. Two huge tests this week in the Gophers and Buckeyes loom. But should Bo Ryan's team be able to sweep this week, they could be on their way to a 3-seed.
3. Indiana State (15-5, 5-3 Big 12)
On The Docket: at Bradley (Sat.)
There might not be a more up-and-down conference with only three NCAA Tournament teams than the Missouri Valley. Indiana State looked to have taken hold in the past two weeks, after beating favorites Wichita State (on the road) and Creighton. But then the Sycamores sprinkled in losses to Drake (second-to-last in the MVC) and Missouri State (third-to-last). Have to beat Bradley before Wichita State comes up again on Monday.
4. Virginia (18-4, 8-3 ACC)
On the Docket: at North Carolina (Sat.)
Strange to hear of the third-place team in the ACC being such a debate for inclusion in the NCAA Tournament, but that shows just how down the league has been this year. Right now the 'Hoos have an RPI problem. They are ranked 81st, but have three wins inside the RPI top 40. Beating a down Carolina team (which would provide another RPI boost) would be key.
5. VCU (19-5, 7-2 A-10)
On The Docket: vs. UMass (Thurs.), vs. George Washington (Sat.)
OK, here us out. First, the Rams are a tournament team. But here's the thing: They haven't had a resume-boosting win since Dec. 1 against Belmont. In fact there are only two top-50 RPI wins in VCU's pocket and while UMass and GW aren't going to help, they can't go in the loss column. Why? Well, the schedule-makers did VCU no favors to close the season: at Saint Louis, at Xavier, Butler, Richmond and at Temple.
RESUME GAME
Think you know your NCAA Tournament contenders? Well, here's a chance to prove it. Take a look at the two resumes and then our explanation as to why we'd chose one team over the other. Disagree? Tell us why below.
TEAM A
Overall Record: 18-6
Conference Record: 7-4
RPI Rank: 67
SOS Rank: 108
KenPom Rating: 79
Home Record: 14-3
Road Record: 3-2
Neutral Court: 1-1
Good Wins (In RPI Top 50): Colorado (18), UCLA (40)
Bad Losses (Outside of RPI Top 75): at Washington (82), DePaul (194)
Conference RPI Rank: 6
TEAM B
Overall Record: 15-10
Conference Record: 6-6
RPI Rank: 64
SOS Rank: 32
KenPom Rating: 57
Home Record: 8-4
Road Record: 5-5
Neutral Court: 1-1
Good Wins (In RPI Top 50): Syracuse (9), Louisville (10)
Bad Losses (Outside of RPI Top 75): at Providence (101), Providence (101), Columbia (229)
Conference RPI Rank: 2
If we were on the Selection Committee ... We're taking Team B. At first glance, it doesn't really seem like much of a contest. Team A has fewer bad losses, a better defense of its home court and two decent high RPI wins. Gotta be Team A, right? Wrong. Team B -- despite having three bad losses and 10 losses overall -- is not only kept afloat by its two top-10 RPI wins, but also the strength of its computer profile. It has a SOS of 32 and since it plays in the No. 2 RPI conference, that number will only rise as we head toward the regular season.
Team A is Arizona State.
Team B is Villanova.
GARDEN STATE HOPES
Where we rank the NCAA Tournament hopes for the seven eligible Division 1 teams in the state:
1. Princeton (11-8, 4-1 Ivy)
Odds: 50 percent. Would've been less, but Harvard dropped to Columbia.
2. Rider (13-13, 8-6 MAAC)
Odds: 40 percent. Have two games against last-place teams, before Niagara.
3. Rutgers (13-10, 4-8 Big East)
Odds: 35 percent. Well, it broke to losing streak. Now can it start a winning one?
4. Seton Hall (13-12, 2-10 Big East)
Odds: 12 percent. On their way towards worst league start in almost 30 years.
5. Monmouth (9-16, 4-8 NEC)
Odds: 10 percent. Four of last six games are at home; should make NEC Tourney.
6. Fairleigh Dickinson (7-18, 2-10 NEC)
Odds: 5 percent. Knights could be at 20 losses by Sunday morning.
7. Saint Peter's (8-16, 3-11 MAAC)
Odds: 3 percent. Could be rough go - four of the Peacocks last five on the road.
(Note: NJIT is Division 1, but the Great West Conference does not receive an automatic NCAA bid.)
Brendan Prunty: bprunty@starledger.com; Twitter: @BrendanPrunty
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
HEY HOOP-HEADS!
We're officially inside of five weeks until Selection Sunday and the start of the NCAA Tournament, which is the perfect time to join in on The Star-Ledger's coverage of college basketball on NJ.com. While we'll have our normal coverage of Rutgers and Seton Hall, with The Tip In appearing the morning after, but there's plenty more. Here's our weekly schedule at nj.com/college-basketball:
Mondays: NCAA Court Vision
Keeping you up-to-date on the weekly happenings around the country
Tuesdays: NJ.com College Basketball chats
I'll be answering your questions each week at 11 a.m., so make sure to stop by
Wednesdays: NCAA Tournament Focus
Putting some clarity in the March Madness picture from here to Selection Sunday
Thursdays: Big East Notebook
Everything you need to know about the Big East -- straight from the head coaches.
ron paul Cnn Electoral Map roseanne barr guy fawkes gary johnson gary johnson where do i vote
No comments:
Post a Comment